Average Probability of Cryonics Working in LessWrong Survey
Here at the BPF we are interested in measuring the accuracy of a variety of possible techniques for brain preservation — including cryopreservation.
The LessWrong forum has an annual survey, one of the questions of which is the following:
What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time, conditional on no global catastrophe destroying civilization before then?
The 2014 results show that the most common probability estimate for cryonics “working” in this sense is 10%:
Perhaps interestingly, individuals above the median age of 26 had a median probability estimate of 7% and a mean of 18%, while those below the median age of 26 had a median probability estimate of 12% and a mean of 27%.
In general, age and probability of cryonics “working” estimates were inversely correlated with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.16:
Again, here is a link to the original source with downloadable data. If you have an estimate, let us know in the comments. And more importantly and germane to the interests of the BPF, let us know why you think that.
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Younger people are more optimistic about cryonics. It would be interesting to do another survey 10 years later to see if the estimations have increased again.